L’Europa volge lo sguardo al futuro: un rapporto sul foresight della Commissione Europea

Abstract

This paper examines the foresight activities of the European Commission through
a content analysis of its strategic forecasting reports. The European Union has recognized the importance of foresight in navigating an uncertain future, especially in the
aftermath of the Ukraine war and the COVID-19 pandemic. The Commission has
established a dedicated task force for foresight, consisting of a General Secretariat and
a Joint Research Centre, to guide its implementation. The paper highlights the significance of climate change and digital transformation as central themes in the Commission's foresight efforts. It explores the geopolitical, economic, social, and regulatory
factors influencing the success of the EU's dual transitions towards climate neutrality
and digitalization.
The content analysis of the Commission's reports from 2020 to 2022 revealed areas for improvement, such as enhancing stakeholder participation and utilizing more
widely shared and plausible scenarios to make the results more relevant for policy
decisions. The study concludes that while the European Commission's foresight work
effectively formulates long-term strategies, there is a need for greater transparency and
citizen participation to ensure a more inclusive and multi-stakeholder approach.