Future use of Lethal Autonomous Weapons (LAWs) by criminal Non-State Actors, and its possible effects on governance, national security and democracy. A futures studies analysis for the case of drug cartels in Mexico in 2050

Abstract

The use of Lethal Autonomous Weapons (LAWs) by criminal groups in the future is a real possibility. In countries with weak institutional environments, like México, conditions seem very prone for criminal Non-State Actors (NSAs) like drug cartels (DCs) to have access to and operate these weapons in the future. They have the money, organization and access to knowledge to acquire them and be willing to operate them. Current signals and trends show that this danger is real, since drug cartels have already used drones armed with explosives, in scattered attacks on police forces since 2020, in territories like the state of Michoacán. This situation represents a significant challenge for the Mexican state and its institutional armed and security forces. What would be the possible effects of drug cartels gaining access in 2050 -or sooner- to LAWs? How would their possession by these criminal groups affect governance, institutional order, national security and even democracy in Mexico?
Using futures & foresight methodologies such as horizon scanning and scenario planning, this paper presents some probable and plausible scenarios of using LAWs by drug cartels, and its possible consequences for governance, national security, and democracy in México.
The objective of this paper is that the depicted futures scenarios for 2050 can become a small contribution to analyzing, devising and implementing anticipatory measures in the present, that may be useful for the Mexican government and its armed and security forces to prevent, and hopefully avoid, this menace.